نقش صنایع کارخانه‌ای بر رشد اقتصادی ایران: روش شاخص لگاریتمی دیویژیا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

2 استادیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از موضوعات مهم در ادبیات اقتصاد، یافتن بهترین راه‌های ارتقا و تقویت رشد و شکوفایی در کشورهای نوظهور و کم درآمد است. مطالعات گسترده‌ای در این حوزه وجود دارد که به طور عمده بر نقش تولید به عنوان موتور رشد تأکید دارد. از این رو پژوهش حاضر به بررسی نقش صنایع کارخانه‌ای در رشد اقتصادی ایران و شناسایی محرک‌های مختلف در صنعتی شدن و تاثیر آن‌ها بر رشد می‌پردازد. محرک‌ها، شامل تحولات ساختاری(بهره‌وری نیروی کار صنایع کارخانه‌ای و سهم نیروی کار صنایع کارخانه‌ای در کل اشتغال) و مقیاس اشتغال است. برای تشخیص محرک‌های مختلف صنعتی ‌شدن و تاثیر آن‌ها بر رشد، در چارچوب قانون اول کالدور، از روش شاخص لگاریتمی دیویژیا (LMDI) استفاده شده است که به این منظور از یک مجموعه داده‌های تابلویی مربوط به استان‌های ایران طی سال‌های 1381 تا 1399 استفاده شده است. به منظور تخمین مدل‌ پژوهش بر مبنای رویکرد داده‌های تابلویی پویا، روش اثرات همبسته مشترک پویا به کار گرفته شده است. طبق نتایج، اثر محرک‌های تغییرات ساختاری بیشتر از محرک مقیاس اشتغال است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The role of manufacturing on Iran's economic growth: Divisa’s Logarithmic Index Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Esfandiar Jahangard 1
  • Ali Arab Mazar Yazdi 2
  • Fateme Zahiri 3
1 Associate Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University
2 Asistant Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University
3 Master of Economics , Department of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University
چکیده [English]

This article discusses the role of manufacturing in the economic growth of Iran using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. The study identifies various drivers of industrialization and their impact on growth, including structural changes (productivity of labor and employment share in industrial factories) and employment scale. The LMDI method is used to analyze with a dataset from Iranian provinces between 1381 and 1399. The results show that industrialization has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, with structural changes having a greater impact than employment scale. The study highlights the importance of sustainable industrial development for economic growth in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Structural Change"
  • " Industrialization"
  • " Economic Growth"
  • " Kaldor First Law"
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