آزمون اثرات نا‌متقارن بار مالیاتی و تولید بر اقتصاد سایه و برآورد حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، واحدتهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحدتهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، تهران، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مقاله حاضر به تبیین اثرگذاری نامتقارن بار مالیاتی و تولید بر اقتصاد سایه ایران با استفاده از مدل غیرخطی NARDL برای سال‌های 1354-1400 می‌پردازد. در این تحقیق برای برآورد حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی از رهیافت تانزی تابع تقاضا (پول) بهره گرفته شده است. شاخص اقتصاد زیرزمینی در ایران طی دوره مورد بررسی فراز و نشیب‌هایی دارد و این‌روند در سال‌های 1354تا 1396 افزایشی بوده است. در سال‌های اخیر با توجه بیشتر به موضوع درآمدهای مالیاتی، شفافیت مالیاتی و کاهش درآمدهای نفتی دولت، حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی روند نزولی خود را طی کرده است. همچنین مطابق نتایج مدل، اثرات نامتقارن مثبت و منفی بار مالیاتی منجر به کاهش نسبت حجم پول به نقدینگی می‌شود که نتیجه آن افزایش در حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی می‌باشد. نرخ‌های مالیات بالا و بار مالیاتی از مهمترین علل افزایش حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی محسوب می‌شوند. نرخ مالیات و بار مالیاتی بیشتر منجر به افزایش فعالیت در بخش اقتصاد زیرزمینی می‌شود که به نوبه خود حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی را افزایش خواهد داد. در زمان افزایش بار مالیاتی ناشی از افزایش نرخ مالیات، افراد سریع‌تر به سمت اقتصاد زیرزمینی پیش می‌روند، ولی احتمالاَ کاهش بار مالیاتی، تاثیر اندکی بر اقتصاد زیرزمینی خواهد گذاشت. برای حل مشکل اقتصاد زیرزمینی، یکی از مهم‌ترین راه­ حل­ها که در این تحقیق مورد بررسی قرار گرفت، رشد و توسعه بخش تولید است. دولت باید برنامه­ریزی مستمر جهت بهبود و رشد تولید داشته باشد و ادامه رشد تولید طی سالیان متمادی کاهش اقتصاد زیرزمینی را به همراه خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Testing the asymmetric effects of tax burden and production on the shadow economy and estimating the size of the underground economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amin Fooladvand 1
  • manijeh hadinejad 2
  • Teymour Mohammadi 3
  • narsis amin rashti 4
1 PHD student of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant professor of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor of economics, Allameh Tabatabaee University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Assistant professor of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The present article explains the asymmetric effect of tax burden and production on Iran's shadow economy using the NARDL nonlinear model for the years 2005-2021. In this research, the Tanzi approach of the demand function (money) has been used to estimate the size of the underground economy. The index of the underground economy in Iran has ups and downs during the period under review, and this trend has been increasing in the years 2014 to 2015. In recent years, paying more attention to the issue of tax revenues, tax transparency and the reduction of oil revenues of the government, the size of the underground economy has gone through its downward trend. Also, according to the results of the model, the asymmetric positive and negative effects of the tax burden lead to a decrease in the ratio of money to liquidity, which results in an increase in the volume of the underground economy. High tax rates and tax burden are one of the most important reasons for the increase in the size of the underground economy. A higher tax rate and tax burden will lead to increased activity in the underground economy sector, which in turn will increase the size of the underground economy. When the tax burden increases due to the increase in the tax rate, people move towards the underground economy faster, but the reduction of the tax burden will probably have a small impact on the underground economy. To solve the problem of the underground economy, one of the most important solutions that was examined in this research is the growth and development of the production sector. The government should have continuous planning for the improvement and growth of production and the continued growth of production for many years will result in the reduction of the underground economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Tax burden
  • production
  • underground economy
  • NARDL nonlinear model

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