تأثیر ریسک تجارت و سرمایه‌گذاری بر نرخ ارز در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه توسعه و برنامه‌ریزی اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران.

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان

4 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر ریسک تجارت و سرمایه‌گذاری بر نرخ ارز مؤثر حقیقی طی دوره زمانی فصل اول ۲۰۱۴ تا فصل چهارم سال ۲۰۲۱ و با استفاده از روش خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری است. از متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، نرخ تورم و شاخص جهانی‌سازی به‌عنوان متغیرهای کنترلی استفاده شده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که ریسک تجارت و سرمایه‌گذاری در طول دوره زمانی پژوهش دارای تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر نرخ ارز مؤثر حقیقی است. تکانه‌های ریسک تجارت و سرمایه‌گذاری در بلندمدت باعث افزایش نرخ ارز مؤثر حقیقی در ایران شده است. همچنین، نتایج تابع تجزیه واریانس نشان می‌دهد که در دوره دهم، 23/37 درصد از تغییرات نرخ ارز مؤثر حقیقی توسط ریسک تجارت و سرمایه‌گذاری توضیح داده می‌شود. متغیرها و تکانه‌های نرخ تورم، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و جهانی‌سازی نیز دارای تأثیر مثبت بر نرخ ارز مؤثر حقیقی در ایران بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Trade and Investment Risk on Exchange Rate in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ramin Amani 1
  • Khaled Ahmadzadeh 2
  • zanko ghorbani 3
  • Mohammad Parsa Ehterami 4
1 Ph.D. Student in Economics, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Prof., Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
3 M.Sc. Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan zanko.ghorbani@uok.ac.ir
4 M.Sc. Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study aims to investigate the impact of trade and investment risks on the real effective exchange rate from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2021 using the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, inflation rate, and Globalization Index are controlled variables. Results indicate that trade and investment risks have a significant positive effect on the real effective exchange rate throughout the study period, leading to an increase in Iran's real effective exchange rate in the long run. Additionally, the variance decomposition reveals that 23.37% of the variation in the real effective exchange rate in the tenth quarter is attributable to trade and investment risks. Moreover, inflation rate, GDP per capita, and globalization also positively influence Iran's real effective exchange rate.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trade and Investment Risks
  • Exchange Rate
  • Structural Vector Regression
  • Iran
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