نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
استادیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان، رفسنجان، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
In this study, using monthly data from 5/2005 to 5/2023 and the QARDL approach, the asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on the price of heavy crude oil in Iran emphasizing the two characteristics of non-linearity and asymmetry in different quantiles are investigated. The findings show that the long-term relationship between geopolitical risks and the price of Iranian crude oil is significant and asymmetric in different quantiles. The effects of geopolitical risks on crude oil prices are negative when the crude oil market is decreasing and positive when it is increasing. The negative effects can be attributed to the existence of fear and panic among the investors of the global crude oil market, as well as the reduction of economic activities due to the existing risks and as a result, the reduction of crude oil demand. The positive effects can also be attributed to the concern about the future supply of crude oil and the disruption in supply and the increase in precautionary demand and finally the price increase.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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