اثرات پویای بازده بخش سوداگری بر بتای توده‌واری در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان

2 استاد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

در این تحقیق تاثیرات بخش سوداگری بر رفتار توده­واری در بازار بورس اوراق بهادار تهران با استفاده از مدل (TVP-FAVAR) و داده­های فصلی سال­های (1:1388 تا 1400:4) بررسی شده است. نتایج ضمن تایید وجود رفتار توده­واری در بازار بورس، حاکی از تاثیرات منفی تکانه­­های آنی بخش سوداگری بر رفتار بتای توده­واری است. همچنین اثرات تولید ناخالص داخلی در سه دوره­ ابتدایی خنثی بوده و سپس در سال 1400 به صورت ناچیز مثبت شده است، متغیر تورم با تاخیر دو فصلی اثرات مثبت ناچیز داشته و سپس در فصل­های بعدی و عمدتاً در فصل هفتم اثرات منفی شدیدتری داشته، متغیر بازده کل بورس تقریباً مثبت بوده ، و در نهایت متغیر نقدشوندگی سهام نیز دارای تاثیرات منفی بر روی متغیر رفتاری بتای توده­واری بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The dynamic Effects of speculation sectors returns on beta-herding behavior in Tehran Stock Exchange

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abbas Behnod 1
  • Alireza Erfani 2
  • Esmaiel Abounoori 2
1 Ph.D. student in Economics, Department of Economics, Semnan University
2 Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, Semnan University
چکیده [English]

For the first time, this research investigat the relationship between speculative sector on herding behavior in the Tehran Stock Exchange market by using the (TVP-FAVAR) model and seasonal data from the years (1388- 1) to (1400-4). The results confirm the existence of herding behavior in the in the stock market and it shows the negative effects of the speculative sector impulse responses on the beta-herding behavior. n addition, the effects of impulse responses of other main variables of the model on the behavior of investors were as follows: the effect of beta herding behavior on itself was almost zero that means this variable was not affected by itself, the effects of GDP in the first three periods were neutral and Then in the year 1400, it became slightly positive, the inflation variable with a two-season delay had insignificant positive effects, and then in the following seasons, mainly in the seventh seasonhas been strongly negative, the total stock return variable was almost positive, and finally, the stock liquidity variable had negative effects on the beta herding behavior variable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • beta-herding behavior
  • TVP-FAVAR model
  • herding behavior
  • speculation
  • stock market
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