جرم و دموکراسی: آزمون نظریه نوسازی با استفاده از مدل‌ پانل آستانه‌ای پویا(DPTR)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه حقوق اقتصادی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد و پژوهشگر گروه دموکراسی کرسی حقوق بشر، صلح و دموکراسی یونسکو

چکیده

ارتباط میان دموکراسی و جرم از دیرباز مورد توجه اندیشمندان علوم اجتماعی بوده است و بر اساس سه نظریه تضاد، تمدن و نوسازی به بررسی روابط بین این دو متغیر پرداخته شده است. طبق پیش­بینی نظریه تمدن، میزان جرایم خشن همراه با اثرات تمدنی حاصل از دموکراتیزاسیون کاهش می­یابد. نظریه تعارض پیش­بینی می­کند نرخ جرایم خشن همراه با اثرات ناشی از نابرابری در اقتصادهای بازار افزایش می­یابد. این در حالیست که نظریه نوسازی پیش­بینی می­کند که با انتقال به دموکراسی، در ابتدا نرخ جرایم خشن افزایش می­یابد اما با بلوغ دموکراسی­ها، سرانجام این نرخ کاهش می­یابد. در این پژوهش اثر دموکراسی بر جرایم علیه اشخاص و جرایم علیه اموال طی سال­های 2008 تا 2017 برای88 کشور با مدل پانل آستانه­ای­پویا (DPTR) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج حاصل از برآوردهای صورت گرفته حاکی از آن است که دموکراسی تا حد آستانه، اثر افزایشی و پس از آن اثری کاهشی و معنادار بر جرم خواهد داشت. به این ترتیب، در فرآیند دموکراتیک شدن، ابتدا نرخ جرایم افزایش و پس از آن و با بلوغ دموکراسی این نرخ کاهش خواهد یافت که موید پیش­بینی­های نظریه نوسازی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Crime and Democracy: A Test of Modernization Theory Using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model (DPTR)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mojtaba Ghasemi 1
  • Houra Rezagholi 2
1 Assistant Professor of Law and Economics, Faculty of Law, Shahid Beheshti University
2 Msc in Economics & Researcher in the Department of Democracy, UNESCO chair for Human Rights, Peace and Democracy
چکیده [English]

The relationship between democracy and crime has long been considered by social scientists. The relationship between these two variables has been studied based on the three theories of conflict, civilization and modernization. The civilization perspective predicts that the rate of violent crime will decrease along with the effects of civilization from democratization. In contrast, the conflict perspective predicts that the rate of violent crime going to increase along with the brutalizing effects of inequality in market economies. The modernization perspective, however, predicts that with the transition to democracy, the rate of violent crime will initially increase, but as democracies mature, this rate will eventually decrease. This study examined the effect of democracy on violent crimes and property crimes during the period 2008-2017 for 88 countries using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Model (DPTR). The results of the estimates indicate that democracy will have an incremental effect up to the threshold and then a significant decreasing effect on crime. Thus, in the process of democratization, first, the crime rate will increase and then, as democracy matures, this rate will decrease, which is along with the predictions of the modernization perspective.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Panel Threshold
  • Crime
  • Democracy
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