نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران
3 استادیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Several factors affect capital flight, and the multiplicity of these factors causes ambiguity and confusion in decision-making in this area; as a result, developing a desirable model and reducing the dimensions of variables affecting capital flight is of great importance. Bayesian averaging approaches have high potential in this area. Accordingly, the aim of the present study is to model capital flight in the Iranian economy. The selected time period of the study is 1990 to 2023. In this article, 41 variables affecting capital flight were modeled using Bayesian averaging models. Based on the results, 18 non-fragile variables; which had the highest level of probability of capital flight; were selected to be present in the optimal model. The most important non-fragile variables affecting capital flight in the Iranian economy were identified as political stability; sanctions and foreign debt. Considering the presence of the foreign debt variable in the non-fragile variables, the debt-based theory in the field of capital flight of the Iranian economy is confirmed.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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