مدلسازی اقتصادسنجی

مدلسازی اقتصادسنجی

تأثیر نابرابری درآمد بر منحنی زیست محیطی کوزنتس در استان‌های ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران
چکیده
در دهه‌های اخیر، افزایش روزافزون آلودگی‌های زیست‌محیطی به یکی از دغدغه‌های اصلی سیاست‌گذاران و پژوهشگران در حوزه توسعه پایدار تبدیل شده است. رشد اقتصادی که همواره از اهداف کلیدی دولت‌هاست می‌تواند همزمان موجب افزایش آلودگی در مراحل اولیه توسعه و کاهش آن در مراحل پیشرفته‌تر از طریق ارتقاء فناوری و آگاهی‌های زیست‌محیطی شود. از این‌رو، بررسی رابطه میان رشد اقتصادی و انتشار CO2  از اهمیت قابل توجهی برخوردار است. با این حال، این رابطه ممکن است تحت تأثیر عواملی دستخوش تغییر شود. هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی نقش نابرابری درآمد در ارتباط میان رشد اقتصادی و کیفیت محیط­زیست با استفاده از داده­های مربوط به دوره زمانی 1400-1390 در استان­های ایران است. برای این منظور، سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی حقیقی، سرانه انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن (CO2 ) و ضریب جینی به­ترتیب به­عنوان شاخص­هایی از رشد اقتصادی، آلودگی محیط­زیست و نابرابری درآمد به­کار گرفته شده­اند. نتایج حاصل از به­کارگیری تکنیک خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی پانلی (Panel ARDL) نشان می‌دهند که در بلندمدت، با افزایش درآمد سرانه، انتشار CO2  ابتدا افزایش می­یابد ولی پس از رسیدن به یک سطح خاصی از درآمد سرانه، انتشار CO2 کاهش می­یابد. این نتیجه دلالت دارد که فرضیه منحنی کوزنتس زیست محیطی (EKC) برای استان­های ایران تأیید می­شود. همچنین طبق نتایج افزایش نابرابری درآمد موجب می­شود انتشار CO2 در سطح بالاتری از درآمد سرانه به حداکثر مقدار خود برسد. بنابراین پیشنهاد می­شود به موازات سیاست­های رشدی، کاهش نابرابری درآمد جهت بهبود کیفیت محیط­زیست توسط برنامه­ریزان و سیاستگذاران اقتصادی هدفگذاری شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

The impact of income inequality on the environmental Kuznets curve in Iran’s provinces

نویسندگان English

Farzaneh Maleki 1
Mahboobeh Farahati 2
1 Ph.D. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
چکیده English

In recent decades, the growing environmental pollution has become one of the primary concerns of policymakers and researchers in the field of sustainable development. Economic growth, which has always been one of the key goals of governments, can simultaneously lead to increased pollution in the early stages of development and to its reduction in more advanced stages through technological advancement and increased environmental awareness. Therefore, examining the relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions is of considerable importance. However, this relationship may be subject to change under the influence of factors. The main objective of this study is to investigate the role of income inequality in the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality using data from the period 1390-1400 in the provinces of Iran. For this purpose, real GDP per capita, per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and Gini coefficient are used as indicators of economic growth, environmental pollution, and income inequality, respectively. The results obtained from applying the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique indicate that in the long run, with the increase in per capita income, CO2 emissions initially increase but after reaching a certain level of per capita income, CO2 emissions decrease. This result implies that the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is confirmed for the provinces of Iran. Additionally, according to the results, an increase in income inequality causes CO2 emissions to reach their maximum level at a higher per capita income. Therefore, it is suggested that alongside growth policies, reducing income inequality should be targeted by planners and economic policymakers to improve environmental quality.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Environmental pollution
Economic growth
Income inequality
Panel ARDL
Iran’s provinces
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