نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، واحد خوراسگان، دانشگاه آزاد، اصفهان، ایران
2 دانشیار علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران
3 استادیار علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، واحد خوراسگان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Traditional models lack sufficient capability in predicting investors’ portfolio returns due to model specification errors; therefore, this study aims to address model uncertainty issues. Accordingly, the objective of this research is to model the factors affecting uncertainty in the capital market. This is an applied research study. The statistical sample includes 171 listed companies on the stock exchange over the period 2011–2023. In this study, 62 risks affecting stock returns were incorporated into nonlinear Bayesian models. Based on the results of the BMA models, 13 non- fragile risks influencing stock returns were identified. According to the findings, interest rate lags, liquidity ratios, and oil revenues—having the highest probability of impact—are the most important risks affecting stock returns. The PTVPFAVAR model results indicate that the long-term elasticity between stock returns and the research variables is higher than the short-term elasticity, suggesting that these risks have a stronger influence on stock returns in the long run compared to the short term.
کلیدواژهها [English]