برآورد آثار تکنولوژی و پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر سرانه انتشار کربن در ایران: رویکرد چندک بر چندک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم ادرای و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

10.22075/jem.2025.31811.1873

چکیده

نوآوری تکنولوژی و پیچیدگی اقتصادی، دو عامل بسیار مهم در تحولات اجتماعی و محیط‌زیستی جهان معاصر هستند. تأثیر این دو بر انتشار کربن که یکی از عوامل تغییرات آب‌وهوایی است، بسیار حائز اهمیت است. ازاین‌رو، پژوهش حاضر به دنبال بررسی نقش نوآوری تکنولوژی، شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی، رشد اقتصادی و تراکم جمعیت در کاهش سرانه انتشار کربن‌دی‌اکسید (CO2) با بهره‌گیری از رویکرد رگرسیون چندک بر چندک (QQR) در بازه زمانی 1996 تا 2020 است. رابطه آماری بین متغیرهای ذکرشده با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای ایویوز12 و متلب برای کشور ایران مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصله نشان می‌دهد که بهبود نوآوری تکنولوژی و شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی می‌توانند منجر به کاهش قابل‌توجهی در انتشار کربن شوند. بدین ترتیب، لزوم توجه به سیاست‌های توسعه نوآوری‌های تکنولوژی‌ و بهبود شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی و ارائه راهکارهایی جهت تأثیرگذاری بیش‌تر آن‌ها بر کاهش سرانه انتشار CO2 در محیط‌زیست از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating the Effects of Technology and Economic Complexity on Per Capita Carbon Emissions in Iran: A Quantile-on-Quantile Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyyed Mohammad Ghaem Zabihi 1
  • Fatemeh Akbari 2
  • Narges Salehnia 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 M.A student in Economics, Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Technological innovation and economic complexity are two pivotal factors shaping contemporary social and environmental transformations. Their impact on carbon emissions—a key driver of climate change—is critically significant. This study investigates the role of technological innovation, the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), economic growth, and population density in reducing per capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Iran, employing the novel Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) modelling approach for the period 1996–2020. The statistical relationships between these variables are analysed using EViews12 and MATLAB software. Findings reveal that advancements in technological innovation and improvements in the Economic Complexity Index can lead to a substantial reduction in carbon emissions. Consequently, prioritizing policies that foster technological innovation, enhance economic complexity, and amplify their effectiveness in lowering per capita CO₂ emissions is imperative for environmental sustainability.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Technology Innovation
  • Economic Complexity Index
  • Per capita Carbon Emissions
  • Quantile-on-Quantile Regression
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