تاثیر آستانه‌ای هزینه‌های نظامی بر رشد اقتصادی: مدل رگرسیونی انتقال ملایم پانلی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد اقتصاد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

2 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

3 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

10.22075/jem.2025.36105.1955

چکیده

این مطالعه با استفاده از مدل رگرسیونی انتقال ملایم پانلی، تأثیر هزینه‌های نظامی بر رشداقتصادی کشورهای منتخب نفتی را طی دوره زمانی 1980 تا 2022 مورد بررسی قرار داده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد ضریب متغیر هزینه‌های نظامی در رژیم اول برابر 1787/0- است که نشان می‌دهد با رشد هزینه‌های نظامی، رشد اقتصادی کاهش می‌یابد. در رژیم دوم ضریب این متغیر برابر 3539/6- می‌شود و میزان تاثیر منفی آن بر رشد اقتصادی به شدت افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین متغیر وقفه هزینه‌های نظامی در رژیم اول دارای ضریب مثبت است که نشان می‌دهد هزینه‌های نظامی سال گذشته تاثیر مثبتی بر رشد اقتصادی سال جاری دارد، اما در رژیم دوم تاثیر این متغیر نیز منفی می‌شود و بر شدت اثر منفی رشد هزینه‌های نظامی بر رشد اقتصادی می‌افزاید. بطور کلی نتایج نشان‌دهنده تشدید تأثیر منفی هزینه‌های نظامی بر رشد اقتصادی با گذر از حد آستانه‌ای (575 میلیون دلار) با سرعت 22/40  است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Threshold Effect of Military Spending on Economic Growth: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Hassanzadeh 1
  • Abdolrahim Hashemi 2
  • Zeynab Futoohi 3
1 Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Scinces, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Scinces, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
3 Master of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Scinces, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
چکیده [English]

This study utilized a panel smooth transition regression model to investigate the effect of military spending on economic growth in selected oil-producing countries from 1980 to 2022. The findings reveal that the coefficient for military spending in the first regime is -0.1787, suggesting that increases in military expenditure are associated with a decrease in economic growth. In the second regime, the coefficient rises sharply to -6.3539, indicating a significantly greater negative effect on economic growth. Additionally, the lagged military spending variable in the first regime shows a positive coefficient, implying that military spending from the previous year positively influences economic growth in the current year. However, in the second regime, this effect turns negative, exacerbating the adverse impact of rising military spending on economic growth. Overall, the results demonstrate that crossing the threshold limit of $575 million leads to an intensified negative effect of military spending on economic growth, with a transition speed of 40.22.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Military spending
  • Economic growth
  • Panel Smooth Transition Regression

مراجع

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