مقایسه تحلیلی بین تأمین مالی صکوک و بدهی عمومی بر ارتباط کسری های دوگانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران

2 دکتری اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

کسری­دوگانه وقوع همزمان کسری­ بودجه و کسری حساب‌جاری می­باشد که آثار نامطلوبی بر عملکرد بخش­های مختلف اقتصاد به‌جای می­گذارد. از طرف دیگر پر کردن شکاف کسری دوگانه با تکیه ‌بر بدهی­ عمومی درصورتی‌که فراتر از محدودیت­ها باشد برای اقتصاد­ مضر است. در این مطالعه ارتباط فرضیه کسری دوگانه با نقش صکوک به‌عنوان یک راه‌حل جدید تأمین ­مالی در مقایسه با تأمین ­مالی­ بدهی عمومی در 14 کشور منتخب عرضه کننده صکوک با استفاده از رویکرد گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته بررسی شده است. نمونه موردبررسی شامل کشورهایی با حجم بالایی از انتشار صکوک در بازه زمانی 2021-2012 میلادی است. یافته ­ها نشان می‌دهد که با حضور بدهی­ عمومی اثر تراز بودجه بر تراز حساب جاری از 46/0 درصد به 68/0 درصد افزایش یافته و اندازه ضریب خالص برآورد شده با 22/0 درصد نشان از تقویت ارتباط کسری­دوگانه است. در مقابل با وجود صکوک ارتباط مثبت تراز بودجه بر تراز حساب‌جاری از 75/0 درصد به 66/0 درصد کاهش می­یابد که بیانگر تضعیف کسری­دوگانه تقریباً به اندازه 10/0 درصد است. در­واقع نتایج حاکی از آن است که صکوک از روش مستقیم می‌تواند تراز حساب‌جاری را بهبود بخشد و در روش غیرمستقیم از طریق ملاحظات ریکاردویی با جبران تغییرات در پس­ انداز به کاهش ارتباط کسری دوگانه منجر شود. در­ واقع ابزارهای مالی کارآمد ممکن است ویژگی‌های ریکاردویی را در اقتصادها اجرا کنند و اثر سیاست‌های مالی بر حساب جاری را کاهش دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analytical comparison between sukuk and public debt financing on the relationship of Twin Deficit

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Taghi Gilak Hakimabadi 1
  • Seyyedeh Soheila Miri Ledari 2
  • Saeed Rasekhi 1
1 Professor, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran
2 PhD of Islamic economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran
چکیده [English]

Twin deficit is the simultaneous occurrence of budget deficit and current account deficit, which has adverse effects on the performance of various sectors of the economy. On the other hand, filling the twin deficit gap by relying on public debt is harmful to the economy if it exceeds the limits. In this study, the relationship between the twin deficits hypothesis and the role of sukuk as a new financing solution in compared with public debt financing have been investigated in 14 sukuk issuance selected countries. The data was analyzed using the General Method of Moment (GMM). The studied sample includes countries with a high volume of sukuk issuance in the period of 2012-2021. The findings show that with the presence of public debt, the effect of the budget balance on the current account balance increased from 0/46% to 0/68%, and the size of the net coefficient estimated at 0/22% indicates the strengthening of the twin deficit relationship. On the other hand, with the existence of sukuk, the positive relationship between the budget balance and the current account balance decreases from 0/75% to 0/66%, which weakening the twin deficits by almost 0/10%. In fact, the results indicate that sukuk can improve the current account balance in the direct method and in the indirect method, through Ricardian considerations, by compensating changes in savings, it can lead to the reduction of the twin deficit relationship. In fact, efficient financial instruments may implement Ricardian properties in economies and reduce the effect of fiscal policies on the current account.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sukuk
  • Public debt
  • Twin Deficit Hypothesis
  • Financing
  • Generalized Method of Moments

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