Housing, as one of the most important household assets and a key sector of the economy, is highly affected by macroeconomic developments and external shocks. In Iran’s economy, intensified economic sanctions and increased exchange rate uncertainty are among the major factors affecting housing construction costs, supply, and demand. Accordingly, this study examines the effects of economic sanctions and exchange rate uncertainty on the housing price index in Iran over the period 1992–2024. Given the inherent ambiguity and uncertainty associated with the variables under investigation, a fuzzy regression approach is employed to estimate the relationships among the variables. The results indicate that exchange rate uncertainty has a positive and statistically significant effect on the housing price index. An increase in exchange rate uncertainty exerts upward pressure on housing prices through heightened inflation expectations, increased costs of imported inputs, and reduced incentives for housing construction. Furthermore, severe economic sanctions have a positive and statistically significant effect on housing prices, with the magnitude of this effect being greater than that of the other factors considered in the model. The findings also show that inflation and urbanization have positive effects on housing prices, whereas the stock market index and bank deposit interest rates have negative effects. Overall, the results highlight the importance of reducing exchange rate uncertainty, managing the economic consequences of sanctions, and strengthening housing supply capacity to mitigate price fluctuations in Iran’s housing market.