بررسی تأثیر ریسک بازار کار بر درآمد خانوارهای شهری در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

2 دانشیار،گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه توسعه و برنامه‌ریزی اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر ریسک بازار کار بر درآمد خانوارهای شهری در ایران طی دوره زمانی فصلی و از سال 1393 تا 1403 با استفاده از روش‌ حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا است. یافته‌های حاصل از برآورد مدل حداقل مربعات پویا حاکی از آن است که شاخص ریسک بازار کار تأثیری مثبت و معنادار بر درآمد خانوارهای شهری در ایران دارد. این شاخص که ترکیبی از مؤلفه‌هایی نظیر سطح تحصیلات، مهارت‌های شغلی، هزینه‌های استخدام و دسترسی به نیروی کار است، به‌گونه‌ای تعریف شده که مقادیر بالاتر آن بیانگر کاهش ریسک و بهبود شرایط ساختاری بازار کار است. ضریب مثبت این متغیر نشان می‌دهد که کاهش نااطمینانی‌ها و ارتقا کارایی نهادی در بازار کار، از طریق فراهم‌سازی فرصت‌های شغلی پایدار و ارتقا بهره‌وری نیروی انسانی، منجر به بهبود وضعیت درآمدی خانوارها می‌گردد. همچنین، اثر منفی و معنادار تورم و بیکاری و اثر مثبت رشد اقتصادی، کیفیت زندگی و مشارکت اقتصادی زنان بر درآمد خانوارها نیز تأیید شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Labor Market Risk on Urban Household Income in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Mardoukhi 1
  • Fateh Habibi 2
  • Ramin Amani 3
1 M.Sc. Student, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
3 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This study aims to investigate the impact of labor market risk on urban household income in Iran over the quarterly period from 2014 to 2024, using the DOLS method. The findings of the model estimation indicate that the labor market risk index has a positive and statistically significant effect on urban household income in Iran. This index—constructed from components such as educational attainment, job skills, hiring costs, and labor force availability—is defined in a way that higher values reflect lower risk and improved structural conditions in the labor market. The positive coefficient of this variable suggests that reducing uncertainties and enhancing institutional efficiency in the labor market—by providing stable employment opportunities and increasing human capital productivity—contributes to improved household income. Moreover, the results confirm the negative and significant effects of inflation and unemployment, as well as the positive effects of economic growth, quality of life, and female economic participation on household income.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Labor Market Risk
  • Urban Household Income
  • DOLS
  • Iran

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