تحلیل و شبیه‌سازی راهبرد هدف‌گذاری پیش‌بینی تورم و بیکاری در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

2 استاد بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

3 دانشیار بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

راهبرد سیاست های پولی، چارچوب و مبانی تصمیم‌گیری‌های پولی و بانکی را در اختیار بانک مرکزی قرار می‌دهد. تدوین این راهبرد و اطلاع‌رسانی درست آن در بالا بردن «اعتماد» سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی به سیاست‌های پولی و درجه «ثبات» آنها و «اعتبار» مقامات پولی نقش اساسی دارد. در مقاله حاضر، ابتدا راهبردهای سیاست پولی اتخاذ شده ایران طی دوره 1400-1340 مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار می‌گیرد. سپس هدف‌گذاری همزمان تورم و بیکاری در چارچوب راهبرد هدف‌گذاری پیش‌بینی، برای اقتصاد ایران در فضای شبیه سازی بررسی می‌شود. در این راستا از میانگین هدف‌گذاری‌های برنامه توسعه، نرخ تورم 10 درصد در درازمدت و میانگین نرخ نایرو 6 درصد به عنوان نرخ های هدف تورم و بیکاری (شبیه سازی 61 ساله) استفاده می‌شود. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد، اگر از سال1340 هدف‌گذاری پیش‌بینی اتخاذ می‌شد، نرخ تورم و بیکاری با رویکرد متعادل پیرامون نرخ های ثابت هدف قرار گرفته و باعث بهتر شدن عملکرد اقتصاد ایران می‌شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Simulation Analysis of Forecast-Based Targeting for Inflation and Unemployment in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehrdad Shaabani 1
  • Ali Hussein Samadi 2
  • Hussein Marzban 3
  • Sakineh Owjimehr 3
  • Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri 3
1 PhD Student in Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Professor of, Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

A well-defined monetary policy strategy provides the central bank with a coherent framework and the essential principles for monetary and banking decisions. Designing such a strategy—and communicating it effectively—plays a critical role in strengthening policymakers’ confidence in monetary policy, enhancing its stability, and reinforcing the credibility of monetary authorities.
This paper first analyzes the monetary policy strategies adopted in Iran over the period 1961–2021 (1340–1400 in the Iranian calendar). It then examines, within a forecast-targeting framework, the simultaneous targeting of inflation and unemployment for the Iranian economy in a simulated environment. For this purpose, the study uses long-term development-plan averages as reference targets: a 10 percent inflation rate and a 6 percent natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU), simulated over sixty-one years.
The findings suggest that if a forecast-targeting strategy had been adopted from 1961 onward, inflation and unemployment would have fluctuated in a more balanced manner around their constant targets, leading to improved overall economic performance in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary policy strategy
  • Inflation targeting
  • Unemployment targeting
  • Iran

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