Journal of Econometric Modelling

Journal of Econometric Modelling

Identifying and prioritization of critical Uncertainty Factors in the Industries of East Azerbaijan Province

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Taher Jodari Rastgou 1
yousef mohammadzadeh 2
Samad Hekmati Farid 2
Hooshmand Bagheri Garbollagh 3
1 Ph.D. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
2 Associate Professor in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia , Iran
10.22075/jem.2026.40188.2066
Abstract
Economic, institutional, and policy uncertainties have become major challenges for industrial activities in East Azerbaijan Province in recent years, affecting firms’ operations and decision making in areas such as production planning, investment, and the procurement of raw materials. This study aims to identify and rank the critical factors contributing to uncertainty in the automotive, food, mineral, and chemical industries of the province. To achieve this, the fuzzy Delphi method—combining fuzzy logic with the multi stage Delphi process—was employed to enable the analysis of qualitative data and expert consensus. A questionnaire was distributed to 40 industrial managers and specialists, and the responses of 19 participants were analyzed. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility, sanctions, international trade policies, regulatory stability, inflation, and emerging technologies play the most significant roles in shaping industrial uncertainty. The findings highlight the need for targeted management of these factors and enhanced collaboration among governmental, private, and research sectors to reduce risks and strengthen industrial resilience.
Keywords
Industry
Industrial Uncertainty
Fuzzy Delphi method
Industrial Risk Management