Econometric Analysis of Projected Oil and Non-Oil Export Data for Sustainable Growth in Nigeria

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, KolaDaisi University

2 Lecturer, School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia

Abstract

Over the past four decades, increasing forecast emphasis has come to be placed on the potential importance of different sectors and their contribution to the sustainable growth of the Nigerian economy. A more common strand of research is existing studies that consider the resource curse hypothesis to show empirically, the actual relationship between natural resources and economic growth. However, these studies have looked at various resource endowment especially oil and metals, with just a few focusing on the non-oil export sector. A preliminary graphical study of the contribution of the non-oil sector to Nigeria’s GDP shows that over time, the linkage of non-oil export to the economic growth has been low (less than 20%). Hence, this study will analyze the long-run relationship and also the importance of both oil and non-oil exportation and their impact to sustainable economic growth. The model introduced in this article uses the time series data for non-oil export, oil export, alongside other macroeconomic variables on gross domestic product (GDP). In order to adequately investigate the long-run relationship, statistical forecast was adopted to project the data for future years and thereafter econometric method was adopted to validate the projected data and analyze the direction of causality between the sectors (oil and non-oil) export and economic growth. The result reveals the possible short and long run interaction amidst sectors’ export and economic growth, based on the different tests conducted, in order to recommend policies aimed at boosting the level and significance of the sectors’ export.

Keywords

References

Aigheyisi, O. S. (2021). Threshold Effects of Import Dependence on Economic Growth in Nigeria Prahové účinky dovozní závislosti na hospodářském růstu Nigérie. ACTA VŠFS, 2/2021, vol. 15, www.vsfs.cz/acta.
Aladejare, S. A., & Saidi, A. (2014). Determinants of non-oil export and economic growth in Nigeria: An application of the bound test approach. Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies, 3(1), 68-81.
Awokuse, T. O. (2008). Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?. Applied economics, 40(2), 161-173.
Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: further evidence. Journal of development Economics, 5(2), 181-189.
Bardi, W., & Hfaiedh, M. A. (2021). International trade and economic growth: evidence from a panel ARDL-PMG approach. International Economics and Economic Policy, 18(4), 847-868.
Central Bank of Nigeria | Annual Statistical Bulletin (cbn.gov.ng), 2020.
Esfahani, H. S. (1991). Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries. Journal of development economics, 35(1), 93-116.
Dutt, S. D., & Ghosh, D. (1994). An empirical investigation of the export growth-economic growth relationship. Applied Economics Letters, 1(3), 44-48.
Jordaan, A. C., & Eita, J. H. (2007). Export and economic growth in Namibia: a Granger causality analysis. South African Journal of Economics, 75(3), 540-547.
Mah, J. S. (2005). Export expansion, economic growth and causality in China. Applied Economics Letters, 12(2), 105-107.
Opoku, E. E. O., & Yan, I. K. M. (2019). Industrialization as driver of sustainable economic growth in Africa. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 28(1), 30-56.
Panta, H., Devkota, M. L., & Banjade, D. (2022). Exports and Imports-Led Growth: Evidence from a Small Developing Economy. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(1), 11.
Rodriguez, F., & Rodrik, D. (2000). Trade policy and economic growth: a skeptic's guide to the cross-national evidence. NBER macroeconomics annual, 15, 261-325.
Sultan, Z. A., & Haque, M. I. (2018). Oil exports and economic growth: An empirical evidence from Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(5), 281.
Tang, T. C. (2006). New evidence on export expansion, economic growth and causality in China. Applied Economics Letters, 13(12), 801-803.
Vohra, R. (2001). Export and economic growth: Further time series evidence from less-developed countries. International Advances in Economic Research, 7(3), 345-350.
World Bank Group (2021) - International Development, Poverty, & Sustainability.

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics