Econometric Modeling the Impact of Sanctions on the Foreign Exchange Market and Its Transmission mechanism to macroeconomic variables Iran

Nademi, Younes; Jalili Kamjoo, Seyed Parviz; Khochiany, Ramin

doi:10.22075/jem.2018.2879

Econometric Modeling the Impact of Sanctions on the Foreign Exchange Market and Its Transmission mechanism to macroeconomic variables Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Younes Nademi

Seyed Parviz Jalili Kamjoo

Ramin khochiany

Assistant Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Ayatollah Boroujerdi

10.22075/jem.2018.2879

Abstract

The aim of this paper is modeling the direct effects of sanctions on Iranian exchange market and its overflow impacts on macroeconomic variables including inflation and unemployment during the 1978-2015 period. For this purpose, a diverse range of econometric models such as ARMAX, GARCH and Markov Switching have been applied. The estimation results of the research models have indicated that the sanctions have three direct effects on exchange market including: increasing exchange rate, increasing the gap between official and free market exchange rates and increasing exchange rate volatility. Also, the estimation results of the Markov Switching models have shown that the sanctions have increased both of inflation and unemployment rates as a way of foreign exchange market. In other words, increasing the real exchange rate, increasing the gap between official and free market exchange rates and increasing the exchange rate volatility have a significant positive impact on both of unemployment and inflation rate.

Keywords

Sanctions

Exchange Market

Macroeconomic Variables

Iran’s Economy